In case BJP-Shiv Sena alliance dissolves in
Maharashtra, you may expect the following:
1) Shiv Sena will revert to its linguistic/regionalist politics.
Shiv Sena & BJP joined hands on the grounds of Hindutwa. Although, Shiv Sena was born out of regional politics, it went soft on Marathi issue after allying with a national party BJP. However, after breaking the alliance Shiv Sena will no longer be under obligation to continue with this soft stand against “Outsider”. It may revert aggressively to its old Marathi issue which has been snatched away by Raj Thackeray’s party MNS lately.
2) BJP will push for separate Vidaharbha.
BJP supports smaller states and has supported the demand for separate Vidarbha state whereas its alliance partner Shiv Sena is fiercely against any division of
However, once the alliance breaks away, BJP will be free to push & support
the demand of separate Vidarbha state which was never been included in the
common minimum programme of the alliance due to opposition from Shiv Sena.
3) Advantage Raj Thackeray.
Although, Raj Thackeray will not be the kingmaker, but considering the poor state of his party, he might gain a good weightage in
Maharashtra politics. BJP may
approach MNS for a postpoll alliance with MNS & may not even field
candidates at some of the seats where MNS is strong. Proximity of MNS has been indicated
number of times in the past when Raj Thackeray visited Gujarat during Narendra
Modi’s tenure as CM, when BJP & MNS shared power in Nasik Municipal
Corporation & when Raj Thackeray supported Modi by not fielding MNS candidates
against BJP contestants in Maharashtra during
last Loksabha polls. Nitin Gadkari & Raj Thackeary are also very close
friends which will help in cementing the alliance.
4) NCP will be in demand.
NCP is not in good terms with its alliance partner Congress & leaders of both the parties have spoken against each other during the tenure of their government. If BJP is not able to meet the required number of 144 for the majority by itself or with the support of MNS, then it may approach Sharad Pawar’s party NCP for a post poll alliance. In the past also in 1985 BJP ditched Shiv Sena & allied with Sharad Pawar, when Pawar broke away with Congress & formed Congress-S.
5) Effect on Centre & Civic Bodies.Shiv Sena has been alliance partner of BJP at centre & at various civic corporations including Mumbai Municipal Corporation. Shiv Sena may announce to withdraw from alliance at these levels too.